Terrill Dicki
Oct 19, 2025 09:36
XTZ is trading at $0.58 with the RSI at 36.88 as Tezos technical analysis shows the price testing key support levels after three consecutive days of market-wide crypto declines.
Fast recording
• XTZ trades at $0.58 (down 0.2% in 24 hours) • Three-day selling streak follows broader cryptocurrency market downturn • XTZ price tests lower Bollinger Band support at $0.54 • Bitcoin correlation leads to broader crypto weakness
Market events are driving Tezos price movement
Due to technical factors and no major catalysts, XTZ price has declined for three consecutive sessions along with the broader cryptocurrency market. In the most recent trading session, Tezos closed at $0.5769 on October 17, extending a decline that began earlier in the week when the token traded above $0.62.
The selling pressure appears to be primarily due to Bitcoin's concurrent weakness, while BTC experienced its own downturn over the same period. This correlation reflects the ongoing risk aversion affecting digital assets generally, rather than Tezos-specific fundamental developments.
On October 16, market volatility increased, resulting in selling pressure across various cryptocurrency assets. The lack of significant XTZ-specific news events during this period suggests that technical factors and general market sentiment are the main drivers of the current price movements.
XTZ Technical Analysis: Testing Lower Band Support
Price action context
XTZ price is currently well below its key moving averages, with the token trading at $0.58 compared to its 7-day SMA of $0.60 and 20-day SMA of $0.65. Tezos technical analysis paints a worrying picture as the price has broken below several short-term support levels while maintaining distance from longer-term averages.
Volume on the Binance spot market reached $998,500 in the last 24 hours, suggesting moderate institutional interest despite bearish price action. XTZ price action shows a strong correlation with Bitcoin’s recent weakness, suggesting that broader market forces are influencing the performance of individual tokens.
Key technical indicators
The RSI value of 36.88 places Tezos in neutral territory with a slight bearish bias, suggesting that oversold conditions may be developing but have not yet reached extreme levels. The MACD indicator shows bearish momentum with a histogram value of -0.0050, confirming the downward trend of the price.
Notably, Bollinger Band analysis shows that XTZ is trading near the lower band support at $0.54, with a %B position of 0.1765 suggesting the price is testing this critical technical level. This positioning is often preceded by either a recovery towards the middle band or a crash to new lows.
Critical price levels for Tezos traders
Instant levels (24-48 hours)
• Resistance: $0.62 (Confluence of EMA 12) • Support: $0.54 (Lower Bollinger Band)
Breakout/collapse scenarios
A break below the $0.54 support level could trigger further selling towards the strong support zone at $0.43, which is the token’s recent low. Conversely, conquering the $0.60 level would signal a possible recovery rally towards the 20-day moving average at $0.65.
XTZ correlation analysis
• Bitcoin: Closely followed by high correlation as BTC weakness leads to broader crypto sell-off • Traditional markets: Limited direct correlation visible in current price action • Industry peers: Moving in line with other Layer 1 blockchain tokens facing similar technical pressures
Trading Outlook: Short-term outlook for Tezos
Bullish case
A rebound above the $0.60 resistance combined with Bitcoin stabilization could push XTZ price back into the $0.65-$0.70 range. The oversold RSI conditions suggest potential for a technical upswing if overall market sentiment improves.
Bearish case
Failure to hold the $0.54 support level opens up the possibility of testing the strong $0.43 support level, especially if Bitcoin continues to decline. Bearish MACD momentum suggests that additional bearish pressure remains possible.
Risk management
Conservative traders should consider stop losses below $0.53 to limit risk if support is broken. Position sizing should take into account the elevated ATR of $0.05, indicating above-average volatility in current market conditions.
Image source: Shutterstock
